Blackjack Risk Manager (BJRM) is an easy-to-use software program that instantly performs several complicated blackjack risk-related statistical calculations that will provide you with the information you need to manage your total blackjack risk. BJRM is used to provide the answers to several very important blackjack questions, such as:

• What is the chance that I will run out of money on a trip or playing session, based on the bankroll I brought?
• If this were a job, and I'm paid by the hour, how much would that be?
• I switch from table to table quite a lot. How many hands per hour am I getting in?
• Within my maximim and minimum bets, exactly how much, and when, should I place bets so that my overall win rate is as high and as quick as possible?
• Exactly how much money do I need in reserve if I am willing to a 1 in 10 chance of losing it all? What if I change that to a 1 in 20 chance?
• Which are the better games, rules-wise, to play? What is the win rate difference between an H17 DAS 104 card game where they deal about 70 cards, and a back-counted S17 DAS LS game where about 4 & 1/2 decks out of 6 are dealt?
• Sometime during my next 16 hours of play, how likely is it that I will be ahead by $1000?
• How much is it worth it to learn a new, more powerful counting system than the one I currenty use?
• I played 6 hours last weekend, and lost $5,000. Just how rare of an event was that?
• I seem to experience very wild $ "swings" as my blackjack play mounts up. Is that normal?

Those queries, and many more like them, are easily 'answered' via BJRM applets, many times with just a click or two of your mouse!

The BJRM Applets

BJRM is composed of five separate applets, which you can select from the initial screen:

The One Second Simulator: In this applet, you select from hundreds of pre-run simulations, covering virtually all of the game conditions you will encounter. You can manipulate bet patterns. Find your optimum bet placement within a spread. Calculate Win Rate, ROR, DI, SCORE, N0 (N-Zero) and most all of the important blackjack statistics.

Trip-based Statistics: This applet gives you quick insight into what is likely to happen to you, durin a typical trip or playing session. Determine your Trip or Session Risk-of-Ruin, expectation, and the odds of reaching certain goals and milestones. Graphically view typical ups and downs of your bankroll, hour-by-hour and trip-by-trip, in the eye-opening "Take A Random Walk" section.

Risk of Ruin Calcs: use this applet for basic "lifetime" Risk-of-Ruin statistics, based on given Win Rates, SDs and Banks. Also, solve for required $ Bank, given a target Risk-of-Ruin value. View number of hands and hours required for +1, +2, and +3 SD results.

Systems 101: This simple learning and practice applet provides a basic entry-level "course" in several popular counting systems. Learn the card tags, I18 and F4 indices, and suggestions of where to go for more information. Practice your Card Counting skill. Estimate your probable hands-per-clock-hour, for play-all and wonging the 6 and 8 deck shoes.

Build One Sec Sim Files: Most players will find the pre-run simulations in the One Sec Simulator more than sufficient for their use, and so they can just ignore this BJRM applet. But if you an Advanced User, this feature will assist you in creating your own custom simulation input files for use in the One Second Simulator. The data can be entered in two ways: (1) manually, based on output from simulations you have run with certain commercially available simulator programs, or (2) automatically parsed from the standard output report files of Karel Janecek’s Statistical Blackjack Analyzer program (purchased separately).

A Bit More About The One Second Simulator Applet

BJRM's main feature, the real heart of the program, is the "One Second Simulator" (OSS), which contains the statistical results of hundreds of already completed simulations, covering a wide range of blackjack rule and penetration combinations. Utilizing these simulations as a base, the OSS feature allows you to select a particular counting system (e.g. hi-lo, K-O, UBZII, Zen, Red-7), the number of decks in play, a particular rules set, and a penetration level.

Then, for betting, you can: enter your own preferred pattern; select from a number of one-click choices; or, perhaps best of all, you can utilize what is likely OSS’s most valuable feature — its ability, when given a specific bet spread, to automatically compute the best size and placement of those bets in order to optimize the growth rate of your bankroll! And it does this for both "play-all" and "wonging," including determination of the optimum wong-in point (it is not always the first positive EV true or running count!)

For all you fans of Don Schlesinger’s writings and sageadvice, one of the one-click bet patterns in OSS features a hi-lo player using the "Illustrious 18" and "Fab 4" strategy departures, and utilizes the results from the simulations I generated as the basis for the original and famous "Chapter 10" of Don’s classic book, Blackjack Attack: Playing the Pros’ Way.

And A Bit More About The Other Applets

Also included are two features that I think you will find useful and fun. In the "Systems 101" section, I have included a simple "practice your card counting" applet, perfect forgetting your mind in gear, before you hit the casino. I have also included "BJ Clock," a custom program designed especially for my collaboration on the Optimal Departure study in the aforementioned Blackjack Attack. It will help you estimate your probable hands-player-per-clock-hour value - vital to determining your $$ expectation, and the effectiveness of your wonging "style".

Because I believe that many card counters do not really have a firm grasp on the nature of the bankroll swings they experience, due to the inexorable workings of the effects of standard deviation, BJRM has a program screen that graphically displays typical examples of the hour-by-hour and trip-by-trip fluctuations you may very well experience. I call this part of BJRM "Take a Random Walk," in reference to the common metaphor that the bankroll growth of a card counter is like taking "a random walk," which in the short- and medium-run, can sometimes lead all over the place, but, fortunately, trends upward as the long-run is approached. I think you’ll find this feature to be a real eye-opener. See the BJRM In Action section of this Web site, for a live action demo.

So dig in, explore, and enjoy — Blackjack Risk Manager. And may you never be surprised by the ups and downs of blackjack risk, again!

- John M. Auston

Questions? E-mail BJRM Support by clicking HERE.

One Second Simulator | Trip Based Calculations | Systems 101 | How to Order | Contact | See it in Action